A two-foot blanket of snow fell over Washington last weekend, silencing for a moment the shouting and bickering that have come to represent American politics. Meetings, press conferences and flights were cancelled. Families reconnected and busy people introduced themselves to next-door neighbors. (No, I'm not kidding. You folks in Minnesota wouldn't understand.)

On Saturday afternoon a crowd of 2,000 Washingtonians - called to battle via Facebook and Twitter - converged on Dupont Circle for a friendly snowball fight. In typical Washington fashion, a legal disclaimer for the event was posted online.

This is good for the nation's capital. The stress level here has been high for a long time, but particularly since mid-2008, when the economy heaved and sunk during the last stages of the presidential campaign. In recent years, the most partisan advocates have dominated the political media. Arguments over healthcare, job creation, the deficit and other issues have reached the point where most politicians - their eyes on the midterm elections this fall - are more worried about winning than making good public policy.

What's missing are moderate voices looking to collaborate in ways that benefit the public. Has the U.S. really become so polarized that there is no middle ground? I think the answer is "yes and no."

In his book, Disconnect: The Breakdown of Representation in American Politics, Morris Fiorina, a Stanford political science professor, contends that political elites on both the right and the left have indeed become more polarized - but not the public at large.

Political elites include Congress, many state and local governments, cause groups, campaign activists and campaign contributors. In other words, these are the people who live and breathe politics. But the rest of the country, the vast majority of voters, is surprisingly centrist. As evidence, Fiorina notes that the percentage of average Americans who place themselves in the most extreme ideological categories is lower than it was in the 1970s. What's more, the plurality of citizens who call themselves "moderate" is higher than it was in the 1970s.

It also turns out, says Fiorina, that people who do state an ideological preference aren't very consistent. For example, while 35-40% of Americans call themselves "conservative," studies show only one in five conservatives hold an opinion that is right-of-center on both economic welfare and social-cultural issues. And one-third of so-called conservatives espouse conservative views on neither economic nor social issues!

In fact, most people are not ideological; they form opinions about issues on a case-by-case basis.  "Depending on what problems the country faces and the perceived success of existing policies on solving them," Fiorina says, "the large pragmatic public opts for more government on some issues and less on others."

And while many social scientists predicted that rising educational levels would ease differences between elites and the public, Americans are no better informed now than they were years ago.  Despite access to 24-hour cable TV and the Internet, many still tune out politics.

All of this means that average citizens hold their political views less strongly, are open to compromise and are more likely to change their minds as the economic and political environments shift. Right now, with the economy still weak and Washington besieged by a host of intractable problems, it's safe to assume that the public's attitudes are in a particularly acute state of flux.

This is why political elites on both sides of the aisle shouldn't assume that anyone - other than like-minded political elites - are solidly in their corner. Polling that relies on labels or that limits choices to "yes" or "no" is unreliable. Coalition partners that are loyal on one issue may be against you on the next. Assumptions about the level of opposition a campaign will face or what voter turnout will be are bound to be wrong.

In other words, despite the conventional wisdom that elections and public affairs campaigns are about "motivating the base," it might be a good time for liberals and conservatives to build bridges with those who are moderate or politically inactive. These centrists may be hard to categorize and their behavior may be difficult to predict. Activists may have to become less strident to win them over.

But, as this election year unfolds, and particularly as the economy improves, many average Americans will suddenly look up and see the political food fight that Washington, D.C., has become. And they won't be applauding all the shouting and bickering. That means the partisan rankling better subside soon.

Lucky for us, more snow is in the forecast.

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